The Road to Naypyidaw

[postlink] https://burmacampaignjapanteam.blogspot.com/2012/04/the-road-to-naypyidaw.html [/postlink] April 26, 2012, 8:49 am

European Pressphoto Agency

Empty seats in Myanmar’s Parliament on Monday.

NAYPYIDAW, Myanmar — The 43 seats of Parliament that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the other newly elected members of her National League for Democracy (N.L.D.) were supposed to fill on Monday remain empty. After winning by-elections by a landslide earlier this month, the Lady and her party are refusing to show up for their first legislative session in protest over having to take a pledge to “safeguard” the 2008 Constitution.
Myanmar’s Constitution grants the military vast powers in the country’s purportedly civilian and democratic institutions. Twenty-five percent of the seats in Parliament are set aside for members of the army. Since any change to the Constitution requires a 75 percent majority, the quota in effect gives the military veto power over the amendment process.
The N.L.D. had boycotted parliamentary elections in 2010 partly because of a similar oath of allegiance required under the party-registration law in force at the time. This past November, after consultations with Aung San Suu Kyi and President Thein Sein, Parliament agreed to ask instead that candidates vow to “respect” the Constitution. But it left untouched the oath of office required of legislators.
In this untested quasi-democratic system, Aung San Suu Kyi has few arms but principles and values. But is she overplaying her hand by taking such a firm position on the small, if symbolic, matter of the oath? The tiff is already calling into question whether she and the the N.L.D. stand a chance of changing the system from within and of making headway on more important and more controversial issues.

Members of the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (U.S.D.P.), which controls about 55 percent of Parliament, greeted the N.L.D.’s absence on Monday with a mix of indifference and elation. After enduring the sight of Aung San Suu Kyi campaigning to adoring crowds across the country throughout the year and suffering an astounding defeat earlier this month — the N.L.D. won 43 of the 45 seats contested — they are now relishing the fact that it’s the N.L.D. that’s keeping itself out of Parliament.
“More than 1,000 MPs elected in the 2010 elections took the same oath of office. Why should that be changed now just for the new 43 MPs?” asked Aung Thaung, an influential U.S.D.P. member who was a high-ranking member of the previous military regime and is suspected of organizing a brutal attack on Aung San Suu Kyi’s motorcade in northern Myanmar in 2003.
The Lady is picking a fight? Why not stare her down? Rewording the oath will likely require some onerous steps: a constitutional amendment, massive approval in Parliament, perhaps even a national referendum. The N.L.D. had hoped that President Thein Sein could talk the Constitutional Court into changing the controversial wording, but the court demurred, claiming that its role is to interpret, not change, the Constitution.
This leaves both sides in a tricky situation. The government is in good standing with the international community these days; on Monday it was rewarded for a slew of recent reforms with the formal easing of many long-standing sanctions. But a protracted standoff would undermine its still-fragile legitimacy. And it could cast doubt over President Thein Sein’s recent promise that ”there won’t be any u-turn” in the democratization process.
The stakes may be higher still for the N.L.D. Many people here are bewildered by the oath issue: what, exactly, is the difference between “safeguarding” and “respecting” the Constitution, and is it worth fighting over? If the party refuses to back down on a matter this trivial, it risks losing the public’s heartfelt support, which is its greatest political asset.
The Lady’s party apparently has no clear strategy for getting out of this impasse other than to await a benign intervention from President Thein Sein with the U.S.D.P.
Score 1 for top-down reform. Score 0 for the Burmese Spring.

By SWE WIN

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The US are cautious in easing Burma ban

[postlink] https://burmacampaignjapanteam.blogspot.com/2012/04/the-us-are-cautious-in-easing-burma-ban.html [/postlink]

Updated: 21:26, Thursday April 26, 2012

The United States says it will ease its investment ban in Burma carefully, noting that recent democratic reforms there are reversible and deplorable rights violations persist.
The top US diplomat for East Asia, Kurt Campbell, says the US remains troubled by Burma's military trade with North Korea.
His cautious comments come as human rights groups voice increasing concern that the US, European Union and other nations are moving too fast to relax economic sanctions to reward Burma's shift from five decades of authoritarian rule.
The EU this week suspended its economic sanctions and Japan said it would forgive more than three billion dollars in Burma's debt, following recent special elections that saw democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi's party sweep most of the contested seats.
Mr Campbell said despite the releases of more than 500 political prisoners since last October, at least several hundred are still behind bars.

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Myanmar to buy electricity from China

[postlink] https://burmacampaignjapanteam.blogspot.com/2012/04/myanmar-to-buy-electricity-from-china.html [/postlink] Thursday 26th April, 2012 (IANS)

Myanmar will buy back 100 megawatts of electricity from China, a major investor in the country's hydro-power projects and receives bulk of the power generated from these plants.

The move will help mitigate the power crisis in the Yangon region, Power Minister Nyan Tun Oo said in reply to questions by Yangon Assembly legislators Wednesday, Mizzima News reported.

"We had to implement load shedding system this year because the power demand has increased," he said.

"We reduced the power supply to industrial zones to augment the shortages in residential areas," Nyan said.

Inadequate grid system and outdated infrastructure have compounded the power problem.

The minister said the power demand in the Yangon region was about 600 megawatts, but it has increased to 700 megawatts this year.

Nyan said the government will boost gas supply to the power plants in Kyunchaung, Mann, Shwetaung, Myanaung and Thaton so they can run in full capacity to generate more power. Currently, the plants are running below capacity due to lack of gas.

The government will also build more power stations for supplying electricity to factories, businesses and residential areas, he added.

--Indo-Asian news Service

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North Korea prepares for nuclear test

[postlink] https://burmacampaignjapanteam.blogspot.com/2012/04/north-korea-prepares-for-nuclear-test.html [/postlink]

North Korea has almost completed preparations for a third nuclear test, a senior source with close ties to Pyongyang and Beijing told Reuters, which will draw further international condemnation following a failed rocket launch if it goes ahead, Apr. 24.

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Myanmar's military moves amid Suu Kyi no-show

[postlink] https://burmacampaignjapanteam.blogspot.com/2012/04/myanmar-military-moves-amid-suu-kyi-no.html [/postlink]

By Andrew R.C. Marshall

Wed Apr 25, 2012 9:07am BST

Myanmar pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi smiles at her supporters as she leaves a monastery after attending a religious ceremony at Yangon April 24, 2012

.(Reuters) - A political stalemate preventing the long-awaited parliamentary debut of Myanmar's pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi coincides with an apparent attempt by the powerful military to bolster its influence in the legislature.

Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD) colleagues swept 43 of 45 seats contested in April 1 by-elections but now she and other NLD MPs elect are refusing to swear a parliamentary oath to "safeguard" a 2008 constitution, which they say is undemocratic.

They want the word in the oath changed to "respect."
The stalemate has unsettled party faithful who are eager for the NLD to help tackle their country's myriad problems, while perplexing analysts who say the NLD's gambit risks being seen as pedantic, ill-timed, and needlessly confrontational.

"It's a very high-risk strategy for political gains that are not quite clear," says Richard Horsey, a former United Nations official in Myanmar. "It's wasting precious time that could be spent on actual policymaking."
The NLD is holding its ground in the evident hope that a deal can be brokered with the help of reformist President Thein Sein and the speakers of the upper and lower houses.

"Different views are the essence of democracy," says Myat Nyana Soe, a member of parliament who recently switched parties to join the NLD. "We hope the majority will respect the view of the minority."
The NLD's no-show coincides with an effort by the military to strengthen its position in parliament, where its officers are guaranteed a quarter of seats under the constitution.

Fifty-nine majors were replaced with senior officers ranked from lieutenant colonel to brigadier general, Myanmar's election commission announced on April 22.

The move anticipates the eventual arrival of the NLD's small but vocal contingent.

"It's quite clear that the replacement of these young majors with higher ranking officials is to make military representation stronger and make their voice heard louder inside the parliament," said a lower house member, who declined to be identified.

The oath stalemate will mystify many in Myanmar, an impoverished country of 60 million people where fretting about constitutional semantics comes a very distant second to daily concerns about lack of jobs, healthcare and educational opportunities.

But Suu Kyi's passion for changing the constitution, which also allows the president to hand power to the armed forces chief in an ill-defined emergency, should come as no surprise.

The drafting of the constitution was tightly controlled by the military, which ruled harshly for nearly 50 years following a 1962 coup, and guarantees it a leading role in politics.

Now, after the military officially stepped back in favour of a reformist, quasi-civilian government, a new confrontation could be looming.

While Suu Kyi has recently hinted at the need for the military to get out of politics, the armed forces commander has spoken of the need for the military to protect the constitution that gives it a "leadership role".

One of Suu Kyi's main promises during her election campaign was to amend the constitution, while NLD campaign manager Nyan Win told Reuters in March that charter change would be Suu Kyi's "very first priority" upon entering parliament.

"SHOULD BE IN PARLIAMENT"
The NLD convincingly won an election in 1990, but the military junta annulled the result and mercilessly persecuted Suu Kyi and her supporters. Since then, Suu Kyi's party has consistently refused to participate in junta-backed initiatives.

In 1995, NLD members walked out of a constitution-drafting assembly convened by the junta. They also boycotted 2010 elections that were widely criticised as rigged in favour of the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), which now dominates parliament.

In 1998, between spells under house arrest, she sat in a car for six days on a country road after police stopped her visiting party members. Diplomats said she used that stand-off to undermine the ruling junta's claim that she was free to move about the country.

What she hopes to prove from the standoff over the oath eludes even potential allies. "The oath is nothing," says Zung Hlei Thang, an MP with the ethnic Chin Progressive Party. "It doesn't create any hindrance for amending the constitution."

"The NLD should be in parliament, where they can raise any issue - corruption, rule of law and, of course, amending the constitution," said Kyaw Zwa Moe, managing editor of Irrawaddy Publishing Group, a news organisation founded by Myanmar exiles in Thailand.

He suspected the decision was a last-minute one taken in the euphoric wake of the by-elections, in which the NLD trounced its arch-rival, the USDP.

MP Myat Nyana Soe said the decision was made by the party's Central Executive Committee. Four of its seven members are MPs elect, including Suu Kyi.

The stalemate could also be testing voters' faith in Suu Kyi, who is widely revered in Myanmar. "People are quite worried that their vote will be useless," says Nyo Ohn Myint, an exiled NLD leader.


Aye Maung, of the Rakhine Nationalities Development Party, played down the standoff. He noted that a foreign investment law was the only major legislation to be decided before parliament's current session expires at the end of April, and that all sides had "plenty of time" to work out a compromise.

But USDP secretary general Htay Oo told Reuters on Monday his party would not introduce any proposal to change the oath. "The wording would have no impact on the development of the country," he said.

While the NLD's seats lie empty, the military's decision to fill its quota with higher-ranking delegates was an "obvious recognition" of parliament's growing importance, said Horsey.

The soldier-delegates were now "thinking for themselves and are allowed to vote independently," he said. "They're studying the issues. In that case, is it really captains and majors you want?"
NLD member Nyo Ohn Myint saw the hand of retired dictator Senior General Than Shwe in the newly appointed military delegates.
"They are all hardliners," he said. "General Than Shwe has woken up and might take the opportunity to derail the democratic process."

(Additional reporting by Stuart Grudgings and Thu Rein Hlaing in Naypyitaw; Editing by Robert Birsel)

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Myanmar can become Asian tiger— UN official

[postlink] https://burmacampaignjapanteam.blogspot.com/2012/04/myanmar-can-become-asian-tiger-un.html [/postlink] 1:06 pm | Wednesday, April 25th, 2012

UNITED NATIONS – The U.N. secretary-general’s special adviser on Myanmar said the resource-rich but desperately poor nation has the potential to become an Asian tiger if it promotes investment, eases financial restrictions, and finds experts to develop the country.

Vijay Nambiar gave an upbeat briefing to a group of reporters Tuesday, ahead of Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon’s visit to Myanmar this weekend, saying that after more than 20 years of “almost self-inflicted hibernation” the country has undergone rapid and dramatic political changes.

“I think the pace as well as the nature of the change has been in some ways extraordinary, and perhaps far in advance of what had been envisaged” by the military, which ruled the country for 50 years, he said.

Since last year, the new government headed by President Thein Sein has overseen a wave of political reforms and won wide praise for progress toward democratic rule.

The government has freed political prisoners, signed truces with rebel groups, and organized April 1 by-elections deemed free and fair that were overwhelmingly won by opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s party and earned the Nobel laureate a seat in parliament after years of repression and house arrest.

“Today, after more than 20 years, Myanmar has a constitution, elections and a parliament,” Nambiar said, which despite flaws never happened before.

He said last year’s meeting between Thein Sein and Suu Kyi “has been a major game changer,” and he praised the president’s statesmanship and the opposition leader’s agreement to contest the April election despite her opposition to the constitution which was drafted during an era of military rule and gives inordinate power to the military.

Another “game-changer,” Nambiar said, was the decision of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations to choose Myanmar to chair the organization in 2014.

The recent suspension of U.S. and European Union sanctions, which were imposed in the late 1990s to punish Myanmar’s former iron-fisted military rulers, has also been important, he said.

But Myanmar’s progress towards democracy suffered a hiccup Monday when Suu Kyi’s party, the National League for Democracy, refused to take its 43 new seats in parliament because of a dispute over the lawmakers’ oath which says they must “safeguard the constitution.” It wants the word “safeguard” replaced with “respect.” Party officials said they expect the issue to be resolved soon.

“I think there is wisdom on both sides to get through this,” Nambiar said. “I can’t see them going through elections and not solving this.”

He said one of the most important imperatives today is to develop Myanmar, which he described as a country “twice the size of England or France with a population much larger than Afghanistan and Iraq put together which has had 60 years of conflict.” According to the International Monetary Fund, Myanmar’s population in 2010 was 50.5 million and the country ranks 149th out of 185 on the U.N.’s Human Development Index which measures the quality of life.

“There is a critical need for external investment, for easing of financial restrictions, of currency reform,” Nambiar said. “All these areas are extemely necessary — and quickly.”

He said in some ways the economic changes are “a little more intimidating” than the political changes because with the transition now taking place in the country “there is going to be this huge rush in terms of investment and financial attention — even aid attention to Myanmar — and the question of how to cope with it.”

It is going to require expanding the capacity of government institutions and changing regulations, deciding what kind of internal and foreign investments are needed, and planning to develop the country’s private sector, he said.

Nambiar, who is Ban’s chief of staff, said the first thing the U.N. plans to do is try and help the government prioritize its development plan.

He noted that the government is bringing back some of its citizens with expertise who have been living overseas, but “there is a huge lack of human resources capability.”

Once these requirements are met, Nambiar said, “I think there is a strong possibility that Myanmar can emerge as a tiger.”

Looking ahead, he said there is also a generational change taking place in Myanmar, including in the military, and younger leaders, even in the army, are going to face the same kind of challenges as their counterparts elsewhere in the world.

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N. Korea: 'Mobile weapons' capable of striking US

[postlink] https://burmacampaignjapanteam.blogspot.com/2012/04/n-korea-weapons-capable-of-striking-us.html [/postlink] Associated Press – 3 hrs ago

PYONGYANG, North Korea (AP) — A senior North Korean army official says his country is armed with "powerful mobile weapons" capable of striking America.

Vice Marshal Ri Yong Ho emphasized the importance of defending the North against the U.S. and South Korea as Pyongyang marked the 80th anniversary of the nation's army Wednesday.

He told officials at the April 25 House of Culture that the weapons could defeat the U.S. "at a single blow."

North Korea made another unusual claim Monday, promising "special actions" that would reduce Seoul's government to ashes.

North Korea is believed to have nuclear weapons but not the technology to put them on long-range missiles. A rocket launch that the U.S. claimed was a North Korean attempt to test missile technology failed this month.

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